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Posted Date: 20 Mar 2009 Posted By: E Mangala Member Level: Gold
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2008 ICFAI University M.B.A Business Administration International Management I (MB341IB) Question paper
Question Paper International Management I (MB341IB) : April 2008 Section A : Basic Concepts (30 Marks) i . e x e • This section consists of questions with serial number 1 - 30. • Answer all questions. • Each question carries one mark. • Maximum time for answering Section A is 30 Minutes.
1. Sterling denominated foreign bonds issued in the U.K. are called (a) Bulldog bonds (b) Yankee bonds (c) Geisha bonds (d) Samurai bonds (e) Matador bonds.
2. If the outright forward rate of US$ for 3 months is Rs.39.85/93 and the relevant swap points are 22/18, then the spot rate is (a) Rs.39.63/39.80 (b) Rs.39.63/40.06 (c) Rs.40.07/40.11 (d) Rs.39.63/40.11 (e) Rs.40.06/40.07.
3. A transaction in which the goods supplied do not leave the country and the payment for the goods is received by the supplier in India under International Institutions aided projects is called (a) Deemed exports (b) Merchant trade (c) Counter trade (d) Barter trade (e) Project exports.
4. Which of the following would most likely cause a nation‘s currency to depreciate? (a) An increase in the nation‘s domestic inflation rate (b) A decrease in domestic real interest rates (c) A decrease in the nation‘s domestic inflation rate (d) An increase in inflation rate of the nation‘s trading partners (e) A decrease in money supply in the domestic economy.
5. As per Uniform Customs and Practice for Documentary Credits ICC Publication No. 500, the L/C issuing bank while issuing L/C, should clearly indicate whether it is revocable or irrevocable. In the absence of such indication œ (a) The credit shall be deemed to be revocable (b) The credit shall be deemed to be irrevocable (c) The credit shall be deemed to be revocable or irrevocable at the option of applicant (d) The credit shall be amended at the option of applicant (e) The credit shall be amended at the option of beneficiary.
6. If a foreign country subsidizes its exports in order to avoid balance of payments problem, the importing country may impose (a) Anti-dumping duty (b) Countervailing duty (c) Transit duty (d) Specific duty (e) Compound duty.
7. Which of the following statements is not true with respect to Special Drawing Rights(SDRs)? (a) Interest is paid to those who hold SDRs and by those who draw down their SDRs 1 (b) The interest rate of SDRs is based on average money market rates in major countries (c) SDRs are only used to cover current account deficit (d) The value of SDR represents the weighted average value of dollar, pounds, euro, and yen (e) SDRs are reserves created by IMF and allocated to member countries.
8. Consider the following: One year pound interest rate is 6% (compounded quarterly) One year dollar interest rate is 5.5% (compounded quarterly) The forward six months exchange rate is $2.0446/£ According to Interest Rate Parity, the spot exchange rate is (a) 2.0471 (b) 2.0496 (c) 2.0396 (d) 2.0420 (e) 2.0596.
9. Which theory on international trade states that innovations are generally concentrated in the richer and more developed countries and that in the early stage of a new product, it is produced and exported by the country which introduced the innovation? (a) Imitation Gap Theory (b) International Product Life Cycle (c) Heckscher-Ohlin Model (d) Theory of Comparative Advantage (e) Theory of Absolute Advantage.
10. The rate given by an authorized dealer for an export transaction is (a) Forward T.T. buying rate (b) Forward T.T. selling rate (c) Bill buying rate (d) Bill selling rate (e) Spot T.T buying rate.
11. Which of the following may lead to a deficit in the Current Account of Balance of Payment (BoP) of a country? (a) Increased exports (b) Increased imports (c) Increased liabilities of foreigners (d) Decreased claims on foreigners (e) Decreased investment.
12. The spot Rs./ £ rate is Rs.82.05. If the inflation in India and U.K are 5% and 2.5% respectively and the spot rate 1year ago was Rs.81.90, the real appreciation/depreciation of rupee is (a) 2.25% appreciation (b) 2.25% depreciation (c) 4.27% appreciation (d) 4.27% depreciation (e) 2.45 % appreciation.
13. The exchange rate system, where a central bank intervenes to smoothen out exchange rate fluctuations is known as (a) Fixed exchange rate system (b) Floating exchange rate system (c) Free float (d) Dirty float (e) Currency board system.
14. Devaluation of a currency means I. Government lowering the value of the local currency under fixed exchange rate system. II. Market forces lowering the value of the local currency under fixed exchange rate system. III. Market forces lowering the value of a local currency under flexible exchange rate system. (a) Only (I) above (b) Only (II) above (c) Both (I) and (II) above 2 (c) Both (I) and (II) above (d) Both (I) and (III) above (e) All (I), (II) and (III) above.
15. Compensating financing facility is (a) A form of overdraft in foreign exchange given by RBI to authorized dealers (b) A form of electronic funds transfer (c) An IMF program to assist countries facing temporary shortfall in reserves (d) A form of transaction that involves asset transfer as a condition for purchase of goods (e) A form of counter trade.
16. The following are the exchange rates quoted in Hong Kong : HK$/£ : 15.7150/59 HK$/US$ : 7.7539/46 The synthetic rate of US$/£ is (a) 0.4933/0.4934 (b) 4.9333/4.9344 (c) 2.0265/2.0268 (d) 1.2185/1.2187 (e) 2.0026/2.0027.
17. Which of the following facilities extended by EXIM bank to Indian promoters under Overseas Investment Finance? (a) Rupee term loans for financing equity contribution (b) Advance payment guarantee (c) Refinance for deferred payment exports (d) Forfaiting (e) Buyer‘s credit.
18. While appraising International Project using APV method, if there is a strong probability of positive cash flows being generated, the discount rate used for calculating depreciation would be (a) Nominal discount rate for contractual cash flows (b) Domestic nominal discount rate (c) Domestic nominal risk free rate (d) Nominal risk free rate in host country (e) All equity discount rate.
19. Under exchange control regulations, which of the following documents an importer has to submit to an Authorized Dealer as evidence that the goods have actually been imported into India for the remittance sent in foreign currency? (a) Air Way Bill (b) Bill of Entry (c) Copy of Bill of lading (d) Combined Transport bill of lading (e) House airway bill.
20. Which of the following forms the basis for creation of European Monetary Union? (a) Brady Plan (b) Plaza Agreement (c) Lourve Accord (d) Maastricht Treaty (e) Act of State Doctrine.
21. Which of the following is false towards Forward Exchange Contracts (FEC) as per FEDAI Rules? (a) FEC can be booked for genuine transactions and where there is exposure to exchange risk, not for speculative purposes (b) Cannot be booked for anticipated transactions, only for firm exposures (c) Value of the forward cover should not exceed the value of the goods contracted for (d) Non-trade transactions, contracts once cancelled can be rebooked (e) In case of merchanting trade transactions forward contracts will have to be booked simultaneously for both legs of the transactions or for the net amount of expected profits. 3
22. Trade in differentiated products is called (a) Trade based on economies of scale (b) Inter-Industry trade (c) Intra-Industry trade (d) Trade based on imitation gaps (e) Trade based on product cycles.
23. Which of the following is false under currency board system? (a) The market mechanism determines the interest rates (b) The board is having power to print the domestic currency to the extent of requirement under fiscal policy (c) The increase in domestic interest rates may increase the supply of anchor currency (d) The stable exchange rates encourages international trade and investment (e) The currency in circulation is backed by anchor currency reserves.
24. A quote is called as American quote, if the exchange rate is expressed (a) In terms of number of units of any other currency per unit of US dollar (b) In terms of US dollars per unit of any other currency (c) In terms of number of units of any other currency per unit of British pound (d) In terms of number of units of any other currency per unit of any other currency excluding British pound (e) In terms of number of units of any other currency per unit of euro.
25. In Mumbai inter-bank the market rates are as under: Rs./Can$ : 38.71 / 73 1 month : 03 / 05 2 months : 05 / 07 3 months : 13 / 15 If a bank requires an exchange margin of 0.10%, what should be the rate to be quoted to an exporter who wants to have an option delivery in the third month? (a) Rs.38.74 / Can$ (b) Rs.38.76 / Can$ (c) Rs.38.78 / Can$ (d) Rs.38.80 / Can$ (e) Rs.38.84 / Can$.
26. Which of the following import licenses is exempted from payment of basic custom duty, surcharge, additional customs duty, anti dumping duty and safeguard duty? (a) Regular license (b) Advance license (c) Open general license (d) Special import license (e) Canalized items.
27. Which of the following international organizations is often endeavors to finance those projects which may not be financially profitable and referred to as the soft loan window of the World Bank? (a) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD) (b) International Finance Corporation (IFC) (c) International Development Association (IDA) (d) International Monetary Fund (IMF) (e) International Labour Organization (ILO).
28. Dendanske Bank, Copenhagen maintains a rupee account with State Bank of India, New Delhi. This account is referred by SBI, New Delhi to Dendanske Bank as (a) Vostro account (b) Nostro account (c) Loro account (d) Mirror account (e) Shadow account.
29. In which of the following cases of INCOTERMS (International Commercial Terms), the seller has to bear the obligation, like risk costs including duties and charges of delivering the goods thereto, up to the port of 4 destination? (a) CIP ( Carriage and Insurance Paid To) (b) DDP(Delivered Duty Paid) (c) DES (Delivered Ex Ship) (d) EXW (Ex works) (e) CIF (Cost Insurance and Freight).
30. Consider the following information obtained from New Delhi inter-bank market: Rs.// Spot 55.07/55.09 3 months interest rates Rs. : 6.00% - 6.50% p.a. / : 4.10% - 4.50% p.a. What should be the 3-month forward bid rate of euro to prevent arbitrage? (a) = Rs.57.21 (b) = Rs.55.42 (c) = Rs.55.35 (d) = Rs.57.13 (e) = Rs.56.81. END OF SECTION A Section B : Problems/Caselets (50 Marks) • This section consists of questions with serial number 1 œ 6. • Answer all questions. • Marks are indicated against each question. • Detailed workings/explanations should form part of your answer. • Do not spend more than 110 - 120 minutes on Section B.
1. Shrishti Leather Exports (P) Ltd., Mumbai has imported machinery worth US$ 500,000 under letter of credit (L.C) for manufacturing of leather items. As per terms of L.C, bills were drawn on the buyers with a usance period of 180 days from Bill of Lading. Mr. Vivek Desai, the Vice-President (Finance) of Shrishti Leather Exports (P) Ltd., has collected the following market quotes: Exchange rates: Spot Rs./$ 39.70/72 Forward 6 month 39.80/82 Interest rates (p.a.): Dollar (6 months) 5.20% / 5.50% Rupee (6 months) 8.00% / 11.00% The supplier of the machinery has offered a discount of US$ 2,500 if the bill is settled immediately. Mr. Vivek Desai is reviewing the following alternatives to minimize the payables: i. Cover through forward market. ii. Cover through money market. iii. Avail the cash discount of $5,000 by taking a bridge loan at 13.5% p.a. from a lending institution. You are required to suggest Mr. Vivek Desai the best alternative to settle the payable. ( 10 marks)
2. Arrowhead Exploration Company, Quebec, a Multinational oil exploration company in Canada proposes to invest its surplus funds of Can$10 million for a period of six months. The Treasury Manager (Finance) has collected the following information from his banker to invest in currencies including that of home currency to earn more interest on the funds without exposing the investment to exchange risk by covering the amounts in forward market. ( 10 marks) 5 Spot Can$/$ 0.9982/86 $/£ 2.0336/38 6 months Forward Can$/$ 0.9965/69 $/£ 2.0246/48 6 month interest rates Can$ 5.00% œ 5.50% p.a. $ 5.25% œ 5.75% p.a. £ 6.25% œ 6.75% p.a. You are required to determine the currency in which the company should invest to have more returns. Caselet 1 Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions:
3. —The current inflow of foreign funds in the form of FII is both an opportunity and a threat to our economy.“ Elucidate. ( 8 marks)
4. Elucidate the insidious effects of huge forex inflows caused to monetary authority of India and steps taken by RBI to maintain the stability of the rupee. ( 7 marks) There is a lack of consensus about the reasons behind the huge forex inflows into the country in recent times. Some experts claim that the India growth story, driven by strong fundamentals, is behind the huge influx. Yet some attribute this to the fact that the Indian market is decoupled from developments elsewhere in the world-after all, our economy has remained mostly unaffected by the contagion effect engendered by the subprime crisis. The surge started after the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate (Fed rate) by 50 bps, which boosted market confidence in the US. The question that arises is with the so-called fourth sector of the economy, viz., the 'stock market' touching a new high everyday, do we rejoice or do we get cautious? Our forex reserves have crossed the $257 bn mark and are still rising. It is perhaps too early to ask ourselves why foreign investors would like to park their money in our bourses. India has been flushed with huge portfolio investment, majority of which were through the route of Participatory Notes. The most obvious positive of this inflow is the impact on the stock prices. Market capitalization of many stocks has reached historic levels. Huge market capitalization boosts the image of Indian companies abroad. Their ratings may be upgraded worldwide. Due to huge forex inflow (mainly USD), demand for rupees increases leading to strengthening of Rs. vs. USD. Accumulation of huge inflows proves the confidence the global investors have reposed in the country. An improved sovereign rating will result in more of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flowing into the country from the developed economies. While raising India's sovereign rating from 'BB+/B' to 'BBB-/A-3' with a stable outlook in January 2007, credit rating agency S&P has quoted that "India's external balance sheet is strong due to reserves accumulation and prudent debt management. 'For a country like India which depends heavily on imports for its energy requirements, the huge forex inflows will lead to cheaper imports. The strong rupee that the huge forex inflows give rises to, will bring down the petroleum imports bill of the country and improve the country's balance of payments position. Of course, the appreciating rupee will perhaps going to reduce realization on our exports, occasion some trade-off. Strengthening of the rupee will lessen the impact of skyrocketing oil prices. Sudden influx of foreign exchange in large volumes will make the position uncomfortable for the government of any country. The level of discomfort is higher when the country is not able to justify the reason behind such huge inflows. Huge forex inflows create a demand for the local currency as a result of which it appreciates. An appreciating currency erodes the export-competitiveness of the country in the world market. An estimate puts the loss (arising from the rupee 6 appreciating by 11 % vis-à-vis the USD) at Rs.30,000 cr. If we ignore the fact that FII can ultimately lead to FDI in the country, the foreign portfolio investment does not lead to capital formation in any economy in the short term. It is necessary that our regulators and government help the companies to exploit the situation. END OF CASELET 1 Caselet 2 Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions: 5. Discuss the impact of the WTO agreements on the foreign trade of agricultural
products of India. ( 7 marks) 6. What are the reasons for declining farm sector exports despite international
demand? What are the measures you suggest to increase the exports of farm products? ( 8 marks) Indian economy in the current fiscal is full of excitement and enthusiasm. The excitement was visible when it achieved an overall GDP growth of 9.4% during 2006-07 as against 9.0% during 2005-06. The Indian success story is becoming more illustrious with rising foreign exchange reserves, record-breaking Sensex, increased inflow of FDI and FIIs, and growing private sector participation. The reformative polices paid well and the economy witnessed a whopping 9% plus growth. In tandem with the initiation of reforms, India also became a founder member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The organization was designed to promote free and fair trade among its member nations. The WTO talks about multilateral trade instead of bilateral trade and is working for the promotion of foreign trade unfolding prolific opportunities in the same. The WTO has proposed to liberate the farm sector from the government support and open up the market for foreign competition. WTO is ushering a new era of farm trade among its member nations. But the Indian farm sector at this juncture is suffering from some bottlenecks visualized in terms of low production and productivity. Though our farm production is increasing in absolute terms but per capita availability of food grains is declining. The productivity or yield is less in terms of world standards and in all major crops, Indian yield is lower than the world average. WTO's Agreement on Agriculture (AOA) stresses on the areas of farm trade viz., domestic subsidies, export subsidies and market access commitments. It promotes to reduce the role of government support. On the other hand, it also seeks to open the national market for international competition by replacing non-tariff barriers into customs duties and reduce it progressively. In comparative terms, India's obligation under AOA is limited due to the low-level of subsidies against EU and US. The expansion of market will not only be helpful for the economy for earning foreign exchange, but will also enhance the profitability of the sector which will serve as an incentive for the farm sector to improve the efficiency and effectiveness levels. Production and productivity holds the key to this endeavor. The basic objective behind the above measure is to reduce government support which could affect the farm products price and hence the objective of free and fair trade. The concern is the declining export percentage of agricultural products in the total national exports. The decline in the trend is visible from 1990 to 2005. The problem is more internal than external. Indian farm sector lacks pre and post-harvesting management techniques. The corrections required are regarding the production, productivity, infrastructure and research and development. To tap the potentiality of foreign trade of farm products, the concerning issues of declining production and productivity is to be addressed properly. The essence of opportune for foreign trade in farming is that farmers should target global markets with their quality products. The optimistic speculation is based on few corrections in our farm sector. 7 END OF CASELET 2 END OF SECTION B Section C : Applied Theory ( 20 Marks) • This section consists of questions with serial number 7 - 8 . • Answer all questions. • Marks are indicated against each question. • Do not spend more than 25 -30 minutes on Section C.
7. Integration of world markets led to the growth of Multinational Companies (MNCs) and by virtue of their presence in different countries are exposed to different cash positions, receivables and payables in different currencies. What is the technique used by the MNCs for a better cash management? Discuss its advantages and disadvantages in brief. ( 10 marks)
8. Write Short Notes on: i. EXIM Bank. ii. Law of One Price. ( 10 marks) END OF SECTION C END OF QUESTION PAPER 8 Suggested Answers International Management œ I (MB341IB) : April 2008 Section A : Basic Concepts Answer Reason 1. A Sterling denominated foreign bonds issued in the U. K. are called ”Bull dog bonds‘. < TOP > 2. C Outright forward rate for Rs./$ < TOP > Spot rate - discount = Forward rate Spot rate = Forward rate + discount Forward rate 39.85 / 39.93 Add discount 0.22 / 0.18 Spot rate 40.07/ 40.11 3. A A transaction in which the goods supplied do not leave the country and the payment for < TOP the goods is received by the supplier in India, under International Institutions aided > project is called deemed exports. 4. A Option in (a) would most likely cause a nation‘s currency to depreciate. < TOP > 5. B If the L/C issuing bank fails to indicate, whether the documentary credit is revocable or < TOP irrevocable, then the credit shall be deemed to be irrevocable. > 6. B When some foreign country subsidizes its exports in order to avoid balance of < TOP payments problem, the importing country may impose countervailing duty > 7. C It is not correct to say that SDRs are only used to cover current account deficit. < TOP > 8. B < TOP 2 2 0.055 1 0.06 1 4 + 1 2.0446 + × > S 4 = = 2.0496 9. B The International product life cycle theory states that innovations are generally < TOP concentrated in the richer and more developed countries and that in the early stage of a > new product, it is produced and exported by the country which introduced the innovation. 10. C Bill buying rate is applied while buying /discounting an export bill or for converting < TOP the proceeds of export bills sent on collection. > 11. B Increased imports may lead to a deficit in the current account. On the other hand export < TOP may cause surplus in current account. Increased liabilities of foreigners, decreased > claims on foreigners and decreased investment affect the capital account. 12. A Current spot rate = 82.05 < TOP > (1,025) 82.05 (1.05) × Real exchange rate (inflation adjusted) = = 80.10 Spot rate last year = 81.90 100 80.10 = 2.25% Real appreciation of rupee = 81.90-80.10 þ 13. D The intervention of central bank to smoothen out exchange rate fluctuations is called as < TOP ”dirty float‘. > 14. A In devaluation the government lowers the value of domestic currency when fixed < TOP exchange rate system prevails. > 15. C Compensatory financing is an IMF programme to assist countries facing temporary < TOP shortfall in reserves. Options in (a), (b), (d) and (e) are not correct. > 16. C The synthetic rates of US $/£ are < TOP > 9 (US $/£) = (US$/HK$) × (HK$/£) bi d bi d bi d 1 (HK$/ GBP) b id = (HK$ / US$) × ask 1 15.7150 7.7546 × = = 2.0265. 1 15.7159 Similarly (US$/£) = = 2.0268. 7.7539 × a sk US$/ £ = 2.0265/2.0268. 17. A • Rupee term loans for financing equity contribution: EXIM bank provides export < TOP credits to Indian promoters for their equity contribution to overseas joint ventures. > The funds are in the form of long-term credit not exceeding ten years. EXIM bank‘s finance will be made available to Indian promoters by way of i. Rupee term loans for financing equity contribution. ii, Foreign currency loans/guarantees, where equity contribution is allowed by Govt. of India out of foreign currency loan to be raised by the Indian promoter. • Advance payment guarantee: EXIM bank issues guarantees on behalf of exports of turnkey projects and construction contracts. Example. Bid bond guarantee, Advance payment guarantee, Performance guarantee etc., • Refinance for deferred payment exports: Deferred payment exports arise when export proceeds are to be received after six months from the date of shipment. EXIM bank offers hundred percent refinance facility to banks, which enables a bank to extend deferred credit to an Indian exporter against supplier‘s credit offered by the exporter to the overseas buyer. Capital goods, consumer durables and industrial manufacturers can be considered for deferred credit. • Forfaiting is a common form of financing export related receivables. It is similar to Bill Rediscounting Scheme. • Buyers‘ credit is given to buyers abroad to enable them to import engineering goods from India on deferred payment terms. 18. C If there is a strong probability of positive cash flows being generated, and hence of the < TOP depreciation tax shield being availed, then the risk premium may be negligible, and the > domestic nominal risk-free rate may be used. 19. B Bill of Entry serves as evidence that the goods have actually been imported into India < TOP for the remittance sent in foreign currency by the ADs. Options in (a), (c), (d) and (e) > are documents of title to the goods and these documents are issued by carrier agents. 20. D Maastricht Treaty forms the basis for creation of European monetary union. < TOP > 21. D Non-trade transaction, contracts once cancelled cannot be rebooked. < TOP > 22. C Trade in differentiated products is called Intra-Industry trade. < TOP > 23. B Currency board does not have any discretionary powers over the monetary policy. The < TOP interest rates are automatically set by the market mechanism. Any increase in domestic > interest rate increases the demand for domestic currency which increases the supply of anchor currency. The system offers stable exchange rates, which act as an incentive for international trade and investment. A currency board does not have power to print unlimited amounts of money due to requirement of domestic currency being backed by reserves of anchor currency. Hence, (b) is wrong 24. B A quote in terms of U.S. dollars per unit of any other currency is called an American < TOP quote. > 25. D The Canadian dollar currency is in premium against the rupee, the transaction is of < TOP buying nature, assuming that the exporter will be submitting the documents at the > beginning of the option period third month , only two months premium is given Spot bid rate 38.71 Add 2 months premium 0.05 10 Add 2 months premium 0.05 38.7600 Add margin @ 0.10% 0.0387 Rate quoted to the customer 38.7987 ˜ 38.80 26. B Advanced Licenses are exempted from payment of basic custom duty, surcharge, < TOP additional customs duty anti dumping duty and safeguard duty. > 27. C While IBRD and IFC were set up to finance profitable projects, IDA endeavors to < TOP finance those projects in developing countries which may not be financially profitable, > but indirectly may have a positive effect on the concerned economy. Hence, it is referred to as the soft loan window of the World Bank. 28. A Vostro account means ”your account with us‘. SBI New Delhi calls the account < TOP maintained by Dendanske Bank, Copenhangen as Vostro account. > 29. E Under CIF the seller pay the costs and freight necessary to bring the goods to the < TOP named port of destination and also procure marine insurance against the buyer‘s risk of > loss of or damage to the goods during the carriage. • Under CIP the seller pays the freight for the carriage of the goods to the named destination and procures cargo insurance against the buyer‘s risk of loss of or damage to the goods during the carriage. • Under DDP the seller fulfills his obligation to deliver when the goods have been made available at the named place in the country of importation. The seller has to bear all risks and costs including duties, taxes and other charges of delivering the goods thereto, cleared for importation • Under DES the seller fulfills his obligation to deliver when the goods have been made available to the buyer on board the ship uncleared for import at the named port of destination • Under EXW the seller has delivered if he places the goods at the disposal of the buyer either at the seller‘s premises or any other named place (works, factory, warehouse etc.,) 30. B Assume we borrow Rs. 100 for 3months < TOP > We should pay after 3 months (100) (1+0.065/4) = Rs.101.625 If we convert Rs. 100 into euro for investment we obtain 100/55.09 = /1.8152 If we invest £1.8152 for 3months @ 4.10%, the investment would yield (/1.8152)(1+0.0410/4) £1.8338 after 3 months To prevent arbitrage, Rs.101.625 = /1.8338 F b F = Rs.55.4177˜ =55.42 b 11 Section B : Problems/Caselets 1. Spot Rs/$ 39.70 / 39.72 < TOP > 6m forward 39.80 / 39.82 Forward market cover: Rupee outflow after 6 month = $500,000 × 39.82 = Rs.1 99,10,000 Money market cover: As the company has to pay dollar 6 months hence, so it will borrow in rupees, convert into $500, 000 0.052 1 + dollar at spot and invest in dollar. 2 Dollar amount to be invested today = $ 487,329 Rupee amount to be borrowed today = $ 487,329 × 39.72 = Rs1,93,56,708 0.11 1 2 + Rupee outflow after 6 months = Rs1,93,56,708 = Rs.2,04,21,327 Availing cash discount Amount to be paid if cash discount is availed = $4,95,000 Rupee equivalent of $4,95,000 at the spot rate = $4,95,000 × 39.72 = Rs.1,96,61,400 0.135 1 + 2 Rupee outflow after 6 months = Rs.1,96,61,400 = Rs.2,09,88,545 Rupee outflow under different methods: (i) Forward market cover œ Rs.1 99,10,000 (ii) Money market cover œ Rs.2,04,21,327 (iii) Availing cash discount œ Rs.2,09,88,545 So it is better to avail forward market, as the outflow is minimum in this case. 2. The company can invest in home currency (Can $) at 5.00% p.a., US $ at 5.25% p.a. and £ at < TOP 6.25% p.a. for 6 months. > 0.0500 1 2 + I. Investment in Can$ 10,000,000 × = Can$10,250,000 Return after 6 months = Can$10,250,000 œ 10,000,000 = Can $250,000 II. Investment in US $ Surplus of Can$5 million is to be converted into US dollars and is invested in US dollars at 5.25%. The amount in US $ is converted into Can$ by covering at 6 month forward rate. Can $ 10,000,000 converted into US$ at the Can $/$ 10, 000, 000 0.9986 Spot selling rate = = 10,014,020 Amount received in US$ = 10,014,020 0.0525 1 + 2 Invest at 5.25% for 6 months = 10,014,020 × = $10,276,888 Convert $10,276,888 into Can$ at 6 months forward buying rate of 0.9965 = $10,276,888 × 0.9965 = Can$ 10,240,919 Return after 6 months = 10,240,919 œ 10,000,000 = Can$ 240,919 12 III. Investment in £ Can $/£ spot bid rate = 0.9982 × 2.0336 = 2.0299 Can$/£ spot ask rate = 0.9986 × 2.0338 = 2.0310 Can $/£ 6 months forward bid rate = 0.9965 × 2.0246 = 2.0175 Can $/£ 6 months forward ask rate = 0.9969 × 2.0248 = 2.0185 Surplus of Can$ 10.00 million is to be converted into pounds and the amount is invested at 6.25% for 6 months by covering at 6 month forward rate. Can$10,000,000 converted into pounds at Can$/£ spot selling rate 2.0310 10,000, 000 = Amount received in pounds = £4,923,682 2.0310 0.0625 1 + 2 Invest at 6.25% for 6 months = £4,923,682 × = £5,077,547 Convert £5,077,547 into Can$ at 6 months forward buying rate of 2.0175 = £5,077,547 × 2.0175 = Can$ 10,243,951 Return after 6 months = Can$10,243,951 œ 10,000,000 = Can$ 243,951 Return on investment: If invested locally in Can$ -- Can$250,000 If invested in US$ -- Can$240,919 If invested £ -- Can$243,951 The company should invest in Can$, since the return on investment is more when compared to the others. 3. The various opportunities & threats of FII inflows are given below: < TOP > • Some experts claim that the India growth story, driven by strong fundamentals, is behind the huge influx. The Indian economy has remained mostly unaffected by the contagion effect engendered by the subprime crisis. • The most obvious positive of this inflow is the impact on the stock prices. Market capitalization of many stocks have reached historic levels higher valuation of rupee against $. Huge market capitalization boosts the image of Indian companies abroad. Their ratings may be upgraded worldwide. This will help the companies in raising cheaper/funds from the international market. Cheaper funds will ultimately increase the profitability of Indian 'companies. • Due to huge forex inflow (mainly USD), demand for rupees increases leading to strengthening of Rs. vs. USD. Sentiments are found against software companies (loss of market cap from 5-11 % in top three software companies observed, incidentally during the period the rupee appreciated by 9-10%) which saw more sell pressure due to the fear of poor performance owing to strengthening of rupees and subprime crisis of the US. • Such huge forex inflows swell the country's forex reserves. Accumulation of huge inflows proves the confidence the global investors have reposed in the country. An improved sovereign rating will result in more of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flowing into the country from the developed economies. • India's forex reserves touching an all-time high of $257 bn from $5.8 bn in 2006-07, the confidence of foreign investors in sovereign strength is increasing as a stable and growth momentum economy. This will have all positive effect when the government will issue sovereign bonds. The better rating of such bonds will attract better investor and good subscription. • The environment created by huge forex inflows usually trigger a chain reaction which gives rise to a slew of opportunities - ranging from job creation to new investment opportunities. Once a country is able to minimize the flight of capital (through the portfolio investment route), it will be able to attract FDI too. FDI leads to capital formation that will finance new factories and infrastructure and give rise to new opportunities in the country. • 'For a country like India which depends heavily on imports for its energy requirements, the huge forex inflows will lead to cheaper imports. More than 70% of our petroleum products 13 are imported. The strong rupee that the huge forex inflows give rise to, will bring down the petroleum imports bill of the country and improve the country's balance of payments position. Of course, the appreciating rupee will perhaps going to reduce realization on our exports, occasion some trade-off. • UNOP report has put India in the list of moderately vulnerable countries. What has saved these countries (India and some other Asian countries) from being at the bottom of the barrel are the capacities of their respective economies to "absorb oil price shocks, performing better with high or medium gross domestic product and economic growth rates" states the UNOP report. Strengthening of the rupee will lessen the impact of skyrocketing oil price • India is a large transitional economy and the risk and fluctuations that may emerge during the process of transition are certainly more severe than those of mature economy or economies of smaller scale. In this sense, India's foreign exchange reserves, at $257 bn, should not become a cause for concern, but rather they can provide an anchor for the country's economic transition. 4. Even though there are advantages attached to inflow of foreign exchange but sudden influx of < TOP foreign exchange in large volumes will make the position uncomfortable for the government of > any country. The level of discomfort is higher when the country is not able to justify the reason behind such huge inflows. Sometimes we may have to look at the other side of the coin. • The Reserve Bank, of India is finding it difficult to cope with the problem of plenty - plenty of foreign exchange. RBI,, Securities Exchange Board of India and Government of India are worried about the inherent, flight-prone nature of portfolio investors. This characteristic of portfolio investors is good enough to destabilize any economy. • Huge forex inflows create a demand for the local currency as a result of which it appreciates. An appreciating currency erodes the export-competitiveness of the country in the world market. An estimate puts the loss (arising from the rupee appreciating by 11 % vis-à-vis the USD) at Rs. 30,000 cr. • A reasonably priced stock generally trades at a PE multiple of 10-15. As a result of huge forex inflows, the stocks listed on Indian bourses are trading at a PE multiple of 24-28. This implies that the valuation of stocks is stretched beyond the reasonable level. No stock can command such a high PE multiple. • If we ignore the fact that FII can ultimately lead to FDI in the country, then foreign portfolio investment does not lead to capital formation in any economy in the short term. Being short-term in nature, these foreign portfolio investments cannot be used for purposes, which require long-term funds; for example, the country's infrastructure needs long-term funds. • The current inflow of foreign funds in the form of FII is both an opportunity and a threat to our economy. It is necessary that our regulators and government help the companies to exploit the situation. • As the central bank of the country, the RBI is against the idea of supporting dollar by intervening in the forex market. Instead it has taken other steps playing its role in moderating the inflows of forex into the country. The recent announcement that six hedge funds can operate from India is a welcome move. Hedge funds are just like mutual funds but their investment horizon is wider than that of mutual funds. Use of interest rate options, currency options and other derivatives by these hedge funds will cool down the volatility associated with forex inflows. These modem derivatives, if used in an appropriate manner will impart stability and depth to the market. 5. • Farming has a strategic position in Indian economy. The prime reason being the < TOP dependence of significantly larger portion of the population on it for their livelihood. More > than 60% population can play a decisive role in creating a demand-led growth in the economy. They are significant for creating demand for non-farm products. Hence, it can be said that growth and development of farming can affect the overall economic growth and development. • Farming also plays an important role in foreign trade of the country as an earner of foreign exchange through exports of farm products. There are possible chances for enhancing the trade because of the opportunities being created in the post WTO era. The main farm products exported from India are tea, sugar, jute, oilseeds, tobacco, coffee, spices, etc. WTO is ushering a new era of farm trade among its member nations. The Agreement on Agriculture (AOA) clause of WTO specifically asks for creating conditions for improving 14 farm trade internationally, which can benefit India in the times to come. • The basic objective of WTO is the promotion of free and fair trade among its member nations. It also promotes multilateral trade in goods and services. To make the trade free and fair, it further promotes the gradual elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Elimination of tariff barriers includes removing of import duties and non-tariff barriers elimination includes quotas, import licensing, quantitative restrictions, etc. • WTO's AOA talks about the issues relating to farm sector trade. The agreement on agriculture stresses on the areas of farm trade viz., domestic subsidies, export subsidies and market access commitments. It promotes to reduce the role of government support. On the other hand, it also seeks to open the national market for international competition by replacing non-tariff barriers into customs duties and reduce it progressively. The basic objective behind the above measure is to reduce government support which could affect the farm products price and hence the objective of free and fair trade. The opening up of the market will promote improvement in the foreign trade of member nations. • The WTO's AOA with its measures is offering challenges and opportunities for Indian farm sector which is strategically in a better position to grab the emerging trade options due to the involvement of two-third proportion of population in it. To actually realize the opportunities, the farm sector needs to pay highest priority in the areas of bottlenecks. • Globalization has opened up new opportunities for the Indian farm sector by way of foreign trade. Currently India's share in the world trade is less than one percent. Due to such a lower share, the inflow of foreign exchange coming to India is also lesser. Farm sectors scope in foreign trade is huge with the liberalized and globalized environment. The farm sector has even in the past played a vital role in Indian foreign trade and can also do the same in the post reform and WTO era, once the bottlenecks are removed. • India can export its farm products to the member nations without any restrictions. Indian farm sector employs proportionately large number of population and in this sense is at an advantageous position than others. It can utilize the manpower available in a prolific way to garner the benefits of foreign trade. The economy is witnessing a structural change, the share of the industry and services sectors in the GDP has fast increased, but the share of the farming share in the GDP is declining, but not its vitality. The total exports value of agriculture and allied sector is on a continuous rise. • The WTO's AOA proposes to liberalize the international trade of farm products by reducing farm subsidies. In comparative terms, India's obligation under AOA is limited due to the low-level of subsidies against EU and US. It is assumed that with AOA in operation and with reduction of subsidies by developed nations, India will be benefited in terms of market access for farm products. • The exact impact of the agreement is difficult to speculate, keeping in view the implementation of the commitments by the developed industrialized nations. But at the same time rationality suggests that due to lower, price of food grains in India, export of the same will increase. The expansion of market will not only be helpful for the economy for earning foreign exchange, but will also enhance the profitability of the sector. This profitability will serve as an incentive for the farm sector to improve the efficiency and effectiveness levels. The new opportunity can serve as a bonanza for the Indian farm sector, if we are able to ensure its impacts in terms of positive consequences only. Production and productivity holds the key to this endeavor. 6. The various reasons for decline of farm sector exports are given below: < TOP > • The basic reason for declining farm sector exports is not due to the lack of international demands but supply side constraints. The problem is more internal than external. The basic problem is of inadequate production and productivity. The production is not rising at the desirable rate and productivity (yield) is also less compared to the world standards. • The other problem which Indian economy is witnessing is whopping population growth. Due to the rise in population the domestic demand is also raising rapidly and hence fewer surpluses is available for export. If production and productivity issues are not addressed it can affect the export surplus in the coming year • The other issue regarding the supply side constraints is the insufficient research and development to enhance the productivity of the farm sector, which is a serious issue. • Due to urbanization, the area under cultivation cannot be enhanced and hence there is a need to work on to improve productivity to match the international standards. Irrigation is 15 the backbone of farming and concern for water availability has reached a critical level. The ground water level is declining 2-3 feet every year. These issues deserve urgent attention. • The other bottleneck is in the field of infrastructure which again is affecting the export potentiality of the farm sector. These bottlenecks are in the form of power, port handling facilities, delays in transportation and above all inadequacies of preservation of farm products after harvesting. Huge amount of farm products gets destroyed in the absence of cold chains for preservation. Suggestions to increase the exports of farm products • The policy makers need to work on the supply side and de-bottleneck it to realize the potentiality of foreign trade of farm products. • The contemporary situation needs a policy which must focus on acceleration and an around development of farming. • Support, encouragement and incentive schemes must be provided to the farmers for making the farm economically viable in competitive terms. • Market orientation policy for farming can make farm products more competitive and can improve the exports to a great extent. • Farming should be practiced as per the international standards. In making farming more contemporary and comprehensive, private sector participation must be encouraged. This can help the farmers in risk reduction and risk sharing promoting the farm products in the international markets. • Indian farm sector lacks pre and post-harvesting management techniques. Poor post- harvest management can lead to loss of sizable amount of farm products and can affect the surplus for exports. Hence, post-harvest management with updated technologies should be encouraged. • The essence of opportune for foreign trade in farming is that farmers should target global markets with their quality products. Section C: Applied Theory 7. MNCs will have multiple divisions/subsidiaries in different countries. Each of the subsidiary or < TOP division will have cash positions, receivables and payables in the same currencies or different > currencies. The composition of receivables and payables and cash can be in any combination. One division may have huge receivables in the US dollar and hedged with a short position while another division which has a huge dollar payable, might have hedged with a long position with the same maturity. Similarly, one division may be having a surplus cash position while another division in another country may be having a cash deficit and borrowing at a high cost. These type of situations warrant proper cash management systems. To overcome these type of problems for cash management, MNCs resort to centralized cash management system. Advantages i. Netting: In large MNC‘s, intra-corporate transactions among various subsidiaries of the parent company or subsidiaries with parent corporate are a common feature. As a consequence there will be receivables and payables among the group subsidiaries resulting in cash inflows and outflows in different currencies. At times the inflows and outflows between two subsidiaries may have matching maturities or may have maturity In a centralized cash management system all cash transactions of group companies are settled through a single point. In such circumstances, netting is possible whereby the receivables are netted out against payables and net cash flows are settled among the group subsidiaries. When we are considering the transactions between the subsidiaries, leading and lagging of receivables/ payables is possible to enable matching of maturities. Netting with other corporate entities is also possible. ii. Management of currency exposure: Another advantage of centralized cash management system is exchange risk management. In a centralized cash management system, the parent can evolve a corporate strategy for exchange risk management keeping overall position of receivables and payables in different currencies of the various subsidiaries in mind. This strategy will reduce the transaction cost of the hedging which otherwise would be incurred by each subsidiary individually. iii. Pooling of cash: Each of the subsidiary will maintain certain amount of liquid position. Some of the subsidiaries may have surplus cash whereas some others may have a deficit. 16 In a centralized cash management system, the center may pool up the cash from surplus subsidiaries for transfer to the deficit units. This will eliminate borrowing cost to the deficit units. The existence of cash pooling center will reduce the burden of cash management at the subsidiary level. Disadvantages: It is rarely possible to hold all cash in a major international financial centre. This is because there may be unpredictable delays in moving funds from the financial center to other countries. If an important payment is due, especially if it is to a foreign government for taxes or to a local supplier of a crucial input, excess cash balances should be held where they are needed, even if these mean opportunity costs in terms of higher interest earnings available elsewhere. When the cash needs in local currencies are known well ahead of time, arrangements can be made in advance for receiving the needed currency, but substantial allowances for potential delay should be made. Complete centralization of management is difficult because local representation is often necessary for dealing with local clients and banks. Even if a multinational bank is used for accepting receipts and making payments problems can arise that can only be dealt with on the spot. Therefore, the question a firm must answer is the degree of centralization of cash management that is appropriate, and in particular which activities can be centralized and which should be decentralized. 8. i. EXIM Bank < TOP > The EXIM Bank was set-up to finance and promote foreign trade. EXIM Bank extends finance to exporters of capital and manufactured goods, exporters of software and consultancy services and to overseas joint ventures and turnkey/construction projects abroad. Term loans are also extended to projects located in export zones. The functions of EXIM Bank are lending, guaranteeing, promotional services and advisory services. EXIM Bank provides funds on deferred payment terms to Indian exporters of plant, equipment and related services, which enable them to extend deferred credit to the overseas buyer. EXIM Bank provides export credits to Indian promoters for their equity contribution to overseas joint ventures. The funds are in the form of long-term credit not exceeding ten years. If the requirement of pre-shipment credit by exporters is for periods beyond 180 days, EXIM bank participates in the credit. Deemed exports can avail of EXIM bank‘s deferred credit facility. EXIM bank may participate with commercial banks extending rupee loans for bridging cash flow deficits of projects/supply contracts; EXIM bank also issues guarantees and provides bridge finance in foreign currency. EXIM bank also extends lines of credit to overseas governments or agencies nominated by them. To enable the buyers in these countries to import capital/engineering goods from India on deferred payment terms. Commercial banks can rediscount their short-term usance export bills with EXIM bank. ii. Law of one price According to the Purchasing-Power Parity Principle (PPP). The price levels (and the changes in these price levels) in different countries determine the exchange rates of these countries‘ currencies. The basic tenet of this principle is that the exchange rates between various currencies reflect the purchasing power of these currencies. This tenet is based on the Law of One Price. According to the law of one price, in equilibrium conditions, the price of a commodity has to be the same across the world. If it were not true, arbitrageurs would drive the price towards equality by buying in the cheaper market and selling in the dearer one, i.e. by two- way arbitrage. For e.g., if the cost of steel in Germany (in dollar terms) were $300/tonne and in the US it were $350/tonne, arbitrageurs would start buying steel in Germany to sell it in the US. This would increase the steel prices in Germany and reduce the US prices. This process will continue till steel becomes equally priced in both the countries. There are three forms of PPP that emerges from the law of one price- the absolute form, the relative form and the expectations form. The Absolute Form of PPP If the law of one price were to hold good for each and every commodity, then it will follow that: P = S(A/B) x P A B 17 where P and P are the prices of the same basket of goods and services in countries A and B A B respectively. The above equation can be rewritten as: P A P S(A/B) = B According to this equation, the exchange rate between two countries‘ currencies is determined by the respective price levels in the two countries. For e.g., if the cost of a particular basket of goods and services were Rs.2,125 in India and the same cost $50 in the US, then the exchange rate between the rupee and the dollar would be 2,125/50 = Rs.42.50/$. The Relative Form of PPP On the other hand, the relative form of PPP talks about the link between the changes in spot rates and in price levels over a period of time. According to this theory, changes in spot rates over a period of time reflect the changes in the price levels over the same period in the concerned economies. The Expectations Form of PPP According to this form of PPP, the expected percentage change in the spot rate is equal to the difference in the expected inflation rates in the two countries. This theory assumes that speculators are risk-neutral and markets are perfect. Let the expected percentage change in P , and * the spot rate be denoted by S (A/B), the expected inflation rate in country A by * A * P . If a person buys the underlying basket of the expected inflation rate in country B by B commodities in country A and holds it for one year, he can expect to earn a return equal to * P . On the other hand, if he decides to buy the expected inflation rate in country A, i.e. A the same basket of commodities in country B, hold it for one year, and then convert his returns in currency B into currency A at the spot rate that is expected to rule at that time {i.e., S*(A/B)}, his expected returns will be equal to the expected inflation rate in country * P , plus the expected change in the spot rate. If the speculators are risk-neutral, as B, i.e. B this theory assumes, then these two returns should be equal, i.e. * * P = P + S*(A/B) A B * * P œ P …………………….. (Eq.3) S*(A/B) = A B Eq. 3 is called the expectations form or the efficient markets form of PPP. < TOP OF THE DOCUMENT > 18
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