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  • Category: Miscellaneous

    What is the sample size of the exit polls? Are the exit polls scientific?

    At the outset, I must clarify that this is not a political discussion. This is relating to statistics. After the polling, seven organisations have conducted separate exit polls in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. There are wide variations in the results of the exit polls. Without going into the details of the results of the exit polls, I would like to know what was the sample size taken by the organisations. How do they determine the ideal sample size in each state? What is the urban-rural ratio taken in the sample? And how can the organisations classify the sample size on the basis of caste and religion? Which method of sampling was employed to collect data?

    This means, I would like to know whether there is any scientific basis of the exit polls? If these are scientific estimates, then why so much variations?

    Let us discuss the issue till such time the election outcomes arrive.
  • #592894
    What I presume that every news channel is having their reporters in important district head quarters and they are advised to approach the voters after they cast their votes and know their opinion in secret and that was revealed after the total election process were over. But here we cannot believe total transparency. Some channels are having affiliations to some political party and their findings would be on that line. Just wait for another 12 hours when the exact results would be out and who will care for the exit polls. In future the exit polls must be banned as it creates premature discussion in every mind.
    K Mohan
    'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
    Even this challenging situation would ease

  • #592896
    Mr. Mohan: This is not the question of accuracy of exit polls. I would like to know about the sample size, sample classification and sampling method of exit polls.
    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #592925
    An exit poll is basically done of people who are exiting from a polling booth, to know how they voted. However, like you, I have also been puzzled quite often about the methodology of these exit polls. How exactly do they determine how many such polling booths should be approached and where - in which taluk, district, town, city? There are, after all, hundreds of them and surely nobody has the financial resources or the staff to visit each and every booth. Do they select places (rural and urban) where voter turnout is known to be always high, based on past statistics?
    Keep smiling...one day life will get tired of upsetting you.


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