What is the sample size of the exit polls? Are the exit polls scientific?At the outset, I must clarify that this is not a political discussion. This is relating to statistics. After the polling, seven organisations have conducted separate exit polls in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. There are wide variations in the results of the exit polls. Without going into the details of the results of the exit polls, I would like to know what was the sample size taken by the organisations. How do they determine the ideal sample size in each state? What is the urban-rural ratio taken in the sample? And how can the organisations classify the sample size on the basis of caste and religion? Which method of sampling was employed to collect data?
This means, I would like to know whether there is any scientific basis of the exit polls? If these are scientific estimates, then why so much variations?
Let us discuss the issue till such time the election outcomes arrive.