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  • Category: Miscellaneous

    Indian GDP has fallen to 6.1 percent in the first quarter of the fiscal year

    Indian government has released a note that the GDP of the first quarter of fiscal year has recorded 6.1 percent against 8 percent in the last fiscal year. Financial experts of Indian government estimated a growth rate of 7.1 percent for this first quarter but it became declined. At the same time China has recorded a GDP of 6.9 percent. Economic experts analyzing that demonetization process affected severely real estate, private sector and financial services which is the root cause for this severe set back. What is your comments on this issue folks?
  • #599610
    "Financial experts of Indian government estimated a growth rate of 7.1 percent for this first quarter but it became reversed."- Is this a reversal? Instead of the estimated growth rate of 7.1 percent, the actual growth rate is 6.1 percent during the first quarter.

    I would like to state very clearly that the first quarter is not yet complete and it will end on 30th June. So, the figure/data is not correct. Moreover, with the onset of monsoon, the GDP will definitely increase further. Even if we take the figure of 6.1 percent as correct, every economist would say that this is a very healthy growth for countries like India.

    Last but not the least, this is for the information that except marxist economists, very few take the Chinese data as reliable. Every economist takes Chinese data with a pinch of salt.

    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #599614
    It was expected that our GDP will fall for at least four quarters after demonetization. All economists agreed on this. But how much was the question of debate. Now we have answer for that. 6.1 percentage GDP growth is not bad at all compared to the world. When we compare it our own previous year GDP it seems we are slowing down a bit. But what needs to be kept in mind is
    this 6.1 is despite the hindrances economy faced during and after demonetization. GDP was was on a downward trend even before demonetization. GDP for 2016-17 Q1- 7.9%, Q2- 7.5%, Q3-7%. Demonetization happened towards the end of Q3, which caused further slowdown as expected. As the money flow increases the GDP is expected to increase in the next few quarters asuming all other factors will be same are more favourable.

    One more fact to be noted is that India loses the tag of fastest growing economy due to the slowdown in GDP growth.

    - Manjunath Bhat

  • #599620
    Partha, The first quarter of fiscal year Q1 January, February and March; Q2-April, May, June; Q3-July, August, September; Q4-October, November, December. The figures I gave above are announced by Central government which is found in today's news papers. Mr. Manjunath also gave some more correct figures related to Q1-Q4 of last fiscal year.

    How is the fiscal year divided?

  • #599621
    Mr. Kambhampati: Till today the fiscal year is calculated from 1st April to 31st March. So, most respectfully, the first quarter of a fiscal year is from 1st April to 30th June. You may easily get this fact checked.
    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #599625
    First quarter or fourth quarter - the main issue is the fall in the GDP. But, yes a favourable monsoon should give the economy a real boost and we should / can expect an upward trend in the GDP in the first quarter of this fiscal year.
    Underestimate me...that'll be fun!

  • #599626
    As far as I know, there is no fall of GDP. As per the stated report whose authenticity is doubted, the rate of increase of GDP is less than the estimation. That's all. The GDP is steadily rising.
    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #599631
    Partha, Go through this link to know the authenticity of this news:-

    Growth slows down

  • #599635
    Mr. Kambhampati: I have read similar article in Times of India. It talks about the GDP growth rate for Jan.-March quarter. As aGovt. employee, I know that during the last quarter there is always a possibility of slowing down of GDP growth due to various economic reasons like payment of income tax by middle-class people and businessmen, less expenditure during winter, various economy measures usually takeen by the Government during last quarter, etc. Even then 6.1% growth rate is not bad!

    But I am amused how the liberal journalists are dancing with joy about the information. Just now checking my Twitter account!

    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #599637
    The financial year starts from April and ends with March. I heard some news that the financial year also start from January. But, that is not started so far and there is no official communication also. As such I feel first quarter is not completed. First quarter will be completed by 30th June.

    As mentioned by Mr. Partha, generally the GDP growth will be less in the last quarter. Even 6.1% growth also good. Demonetization will have definitely some say on GDP. Even then a growth of 6.1% is a good growth.

    drrao
    always confident

  • #599718
    Dr. Manmohan Singh predicted 2% drop in GDP after demonetization which is found to be true.
    A wake up call for PM Modi

  • #599722
    Mr. Neeraj: Kindly explain your 'wake up call'. How to wake up? Is Mr. Modi asleep? Do you want Central Government to roll back/reverse demonetization? 6.1% GDP growth during last quarter amidst global economic tension is a call for wake up!

    Only one thing can be stated for sure: people's expectation from the present Government is very high.

    Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.

  • #599724
    This need not create panic or surprise.
    Actually many doomsayers predicted something worse. After the demonetisation a drop in growth was expected. Not only demonetisation, but the uncertainties regarding GST also added to slow growth.
    We have to see reality somewhere between the rosy predictions of ruling side and the panic creating doom prediction by the opposition and the vested interests.

    I feel this has to be like that, because only the ground work for economic growth is now going on.The government has not relied on short term gains, but aim long term benefit by laying foundation for that.
    Let us be realistic and not over expect. Stability is what is needed,

  • #599727
    I wont give credence to the fact that the GDP has fallen as opined by the expert. In fact this time the agriculture sector was poised for the greater leap and development with more stock and even buffer stock. Like wise Industries are also going to post their profit with much margin. Yes the common man was much affected with the demonetization and he is yet to come with the terms regarding cash less economy. The purchasing power of the common man has been postponed and probably for the next quarter the results would be far much satisfactory. Nevertheless this decline in growth rate would be the cane for the opposition which would beat the government left and right for its bad fiscal policy. But I am of the opinion that by the end of this fiscal year India is going to beat China and that is for sure.
    K Mohan
    'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
    Even this challenging situation would ease

  • #599740
    6.1 % growth is for Jan-Mar 2017 quarter( fourth quarter ) not for first quarter. Raising thread and approving on wrong data is not good. Overall GDP growth for the financial year 2016-17 is 7.1 . what is the use of crying, we should introspect what we had contributed towards this achievement.
    The greatest wealth in this world is mental peace and good health.


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