For any matter there is not going to be even small skirmish forget about war. There are certain pre conditions for any exchange of large scale fire to take place between two nations.
1. Political instability. When government in power is facing mass civil unrest then the nation prepares for war with neighbour to divert the attention. E.g. During 1962 war china was having severe domestic problems. 1972 Bangladesh war-India was having a charged political climate.
But now party in power doesn't face that much pressure.
2. Economic stability. Both countries are going through a transition phase in economy and don't want a war to ruin their plans.
3. India and Chinese army have not fired a bullet for decades. The present conflict is too tiny to start a war.
4. Both nations have no dispute in territorial positions of both sides. India has clearly said it doesn't claim any territory in Dokhlam area or in the territory were Indian troops have camped. The dispute is largely a flare up due to construction activities.
True the rhetoric in Chinese side has increased. But that is due to a larger global issue like Silk Road issue which India remained the sole member to oppose.
China wants to just break th Bhutan India special relationship and force Bhutan to deal directly with china.
What is happening is stand off attrition to force the other side to give some concession.
But the situation has not gone to that level of announcing a war by any of the two countries. Bothe of them are having bitter experiences in this and no country really wants to fight each other unless the situation has very much warrants that. So let us not expect any war at this stage,
In my opinion, it is nothing but a tactics of China for creating some psychological pressure on India while India is not ready to bow down to the pressure and ready to do everything to defend the sovereignty and integrity of our motherland.
Both the countries are also aware that war is no solution to a problem and therefore, they would certainly come on the negotiation table sooner or later.
War can only aggravate matters and cause immense harm to the sides involved.
China is feeling concerned by the increasing attention,acceptability and respectability India gets among international community. China knows and is really afraid that India's gain especially in the economic development and self reliance will be a setback to its market. It is viewing with doubts and concern the rising feeling of self respect and people's campaign against Chinese product in this country. If 'Make in India' becomes a success, then China will be the first one to be affected maximum.
The present actions by China is to scare India by loud mouthing its inflated might and distract India's focus from economic development and self reliance.
I hope that proper sense will prevail with China and it will assess things very realistically knowing that it has many aggrieved neighbours who were kept bulldozed by China until now.
'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
Even this challenging situation would ease
As far as I know, soldiers of 17 Mountain Div. (Black Cat Div.; HQ Gangtok) under XXXIII Corps (HQ Siliguri) has been stationed by India to prevent China to construct road in that area. This is strategically very important for India for future build-up at Chumbi valley and to protect Siliguri Chicken's Neck.
China knows it very well that the present India is not Nehru's India of 1962. The possibility of further escalation at Dokalam is negligible. Even if it happens, India is fully prepared to face it. Moreover, China's huge trade interest in India and international opinion in favour of India will work against China in case of escalation.
Caution: Explosive. Handle with care.
It is illegal to build artificial islands on the sea under international maritime law. China is completed the construction of an artificial island on South China sea that appear designed to house long range surface to Air missiles. These waters carry almost one third of maritime traffic. Many countries have claims on these waters. But none of them are powerful enough to take on Chinese military and have to rely on US and its political support.
This development raises the questions on US superiority in that region.
China is exploiting a loophole in the law that they built the island on natural reef.
As long as China allows unfettered passage of all shipping, everything will be ok. Any fire on any vessels becomes a real battle, making that area a flash point.
Anyway lot of good discussion you all shared here and now topic is being more interested. Pakistan and China are friends but India have many friends like US,Rashiya,Israiel,bhutan etc. If required then they will also with India.
So Modiji is not only going to out country only for visit due to visit India able to get many more friends.
Santosh Kumar Singh
(Sr. Microsoft Dynamics Axapta Technical,Mumbai)