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Indian economy to expand by 8.5-8.9 pc: NCAER
Posted Date: 06 May 2008 Resource Type: Articles/Knowledge Sharing Category: News
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Posted By: vijay kumar Member Level: Diamond
Rating:  Points: 3
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New Delhi (PTI): Economic think tank NCAER on Tuesday forecast the Indian economy to grow by a healthy 8.5 to 8.9 per cent during 2008-09, despite a slowdown in global economic growth and rising commodity prices.
"While the GDP growth in the base case is projected to be 8.5 per cent, in the more comprehensive case, GDP growth is projected at 8.9 per cent," the latest quarterly review of the economy by NCAER said.
The short-term prospects are less attractive than a year earlier despite the fundamentals of growth remaining intact, it said.
Inflation, during the year, is likely to be in between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent against 4.4 per cent last year. At the same time, fiscal deficit is projected to be close to 3 per cent of GDP even under the higher growth scenario, it said.
As per the advance estimates for 2007-08, the country's economy expanded by 8.7 per cent.
Last week, Reserve Bank in its annual credit policy projected the country's GDP to grow by 8-8.5 per cent for 2008-09 assuming that global financial and commodity markets and real economy will be broadly aligned with the central scenario and normal monsoon conditions prevail.
The report said the sustainability of the growth momentum is clearly subject to overcoming the shocks and constraints along the way.
Pointing out the constraints, the report said the cyclical downturn in advanced economies and high commodity prices in international markets due to both short-term supply shortages as well as high growth in economic activity in the emerging economies could act as shocks.
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