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  • Category: Miscellaneous

    How accurate are weather predictions?

    The authorities who predict the weather conditions are sometimes deadly accurate. But at times, they are not.

    One does not know exactly the scientific basis of their predictions. There is a standing joke in Tamil Nadu. If they predict there will be rain, please go out and do all work, as there will be no rain! If the prediction is that there will be no rain, please do not venture out, as there will be heavy rain!!

    Jokes apart, on a scientific basis, how do they predict rain or shine? Do global trends also influence their predictions?

    Members who know the scientific basis may please share some details so that we can all understand a little more than what we now know, about weather predictions.
  • #641605
    Over the years, the weather forecast system of India has been becoming more and more accurate. In fact, the monsoon and drought prediction and cyclone monitoring system of India is even better than that of the USA. India can be very proud of the weather prediction system of the country.
    Beware! I question everything and everybody.

  • #641606
    It is easy to ridicule a system which is purely based on the wind movements. Yes sometimes the weather predictions may go wrong to which the MET department cannot be blamed. During Sankranthi, we used to fly the kites. The kites are flown to know the wind direction so that husk from the paddy be removed. But invariably the air directions move different ways and we get dejected as we want to have the fight with other kites. Same way the MET department also makes advance predictions say some five to six hours before but the wind directions take away the clouds to other places and thus weather monitoring system blamed.
    K Mohan
    'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
    Even this challenging situation would ease

  • #641607
    Once the weather forecast was not believed by most of the people. But nowadays the weather forecast is accurate enough to believe. I have observed many times and found accurate weather forecast in the last some months. They use highly developed techniques for the weather forecast which provide accurate results.
    Honesty is the best policy.

  • #641641
    During the 1980s and 1990s, the weather forecasts were not that accurate and what the author mentioned was true many times. But over a period of time, the prediction system has improved. The monitoring of weather is now by using the satellites and ISRO is doing a very good job in this direction. National Remote Sensing agency in combination with ISRO is able to analyse the information from the satellite and able to give correct predictions. I have personally visited some laboratories if ISRO and NRSC and seen the systems and methods they follow are really excellent and their commitment to the quality of work is commendable.
    always confident

  • #641646
    With the advent of technology, especially the satellite imagery and communication area, the weather prediction are becoming more and more accurate. New research and techniques are replacing the old methods.

    Computerisation is helping in presenting the complex whether data in time to the public so that they can take necessary precautions and be alert.

    Knowledge is power.

  • #641650
    Now a days some private agencies are also predicting the weather forecast but that is not taken by the fisherman or the farmers seriously. The MET forecast is still reliable.
    K Mohan
    'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
    Even this challenging situation would ease

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