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  • Category: Miscellaneous

    Why IMD could not predict the weather accurately?

    Very recently, the Indian Metrological Department (IMD) issued Red alert for Kerala, Tamilnadu and Pondicherry predicting that there would be heavy to very heavy rain on 7th October. All the three states acted fast to overcome the flood situations. But the weather was fair and good on 7th October. Can't our IMD predict and forecast the accurate weather condition? What is the percentage of trust we can have with our IMD?

    Should this be - Heavy rain means No rain, No rain means Heavy rain?
  • #650248
    There is a saying in Telugu. The meaning of that is, it is not possible for anybody to exactly know about the death of a person and at what time it will rain.
    The satellites will be capturing the information from the atmosphere and it will be transmitting the captured data. The Data will be analysed by the concerned officers and based on the analysis the prediction will be made. Always there are chances for some errors in the process of analysis.
    Another point is the weather condition is not static. It is a kinetic phenomenon. So from time to time, the signals will be changing. It is better if we expect worst condition and take precautions rather than ignoring their warnings. Sometimes if we ignore their warnings, it may really be made us suffer.
    The present-day system of weather forecast has improved a lot and it is far better than earlier days.

    always confident

  • #650260
    We have witnessed accurate prediction with the date and exact time of cyclonic storm crossing the area and the wind speed etc. The advanced met information technology has helped to predict the accurate weather forecast. I do not know what went wrong with the IMD's weather prediction for 7th October. It failed terribly with no rain on that day.
    No life without Sun

  • #650265
    And now IMD has issued red alert in coastal areas of Andhra pradesh and Orrisa on Wednesday and Thursday.

    Also it is said that titli ( cyclonic storm) is moving towards this state so it is advised to the people of coastal area to shift to the safer place.


    " It is better to be hated for what you are than to be loved for what you are not" ... Andre Gide

  • #650281
    Actually SkyMet predicted that cyclone will either come to those locations or vanish in ocean. Hence it was only prediction.

  • #650283
    Meteorological predictions are based on a lot of scientific studies based on the data collected from the meteorological laboratories and watching and monitoring centres. The data from global satellites is also used by the agencies involved in these predictions.

    In spite of so much advancements in these techniques and methods, many times the predictions do not come true. So the success ratio in meteorological predictions is not 100 %.

    We have already seen in case of mansoon predictions every time that the dates vary and depart a few days from the actual time. So there is a uncertainty in these announcements and we have to take them with a pinch of salt.

    Knowledge is power.

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