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  • Category: Miscellaneous

    Do you believe exit polls.

    Elections for 5 States are over. Now all are waiting to know what is there in the EVMs. Immediately after 5 PM yesterday, all the TV channels started airing the exit polls. Many exit polls conducted by various channels and news media started airing their predictions.
    Yesterday the exit polls predict a good response to Congress in 3 states. In Telangana, KCR is going to win. But there are variations from one exit poll to another.
    The AP politician Lagadapati is very famous for the exit polls. The survey results he has delivered earlier regarding TN and Karnataka were very close to the actual results. He says the north based news agencies can't predict the South state's trends properly. His prediction about Telangana is that Congress will form the government.
    We have to wait till 11th to know who is correct and who is wrong. I like to know the views of other members on the concept of exit polls.
  • #654569
    Generally, exit poll is the sample survey taking the opinions of voters after completion or during the polling. Actual vote for which party is not possible for any exit poll agency. Moreover, it depends upon the mental pulling of a voter at the time of polling. So, exit poll is only an approximation to the real results. So, actual results could be seen after elections only.

  • #654574
    Exit polls are used by many agencies to find out to whom people have voted in general and what an aligned group of locality or area or village done in this respect in particular.

    The agencies feel that they are able to capture the pattern as near to the correct one as possible. The methods used in exit polls are almost same and analysis is also based on the same principles still the agencies have difference of opinion in this regard. This itself speaks of the uncertainty in this type of statistical prediction.

    Predictions and speculations based on feeble data and background information generally do not lead to conclusions. So exit polls are also weak in their estimations to this degree.

    Election is a complicated process and related to the affiliations of various groups to different ideologies. Many educated people feel their selves out of the place in this democratic set up and do not caste their votes. More participation by people in election process and a voting percentage more than 90% can only give the true verdict of the people and exit polls will also have more data to make better predictions.

    Knowledge is power.

  • #654602
    Exit polls are all predictions. There are times when the actual results completely differed from the results of the exit polls. Take the case of the exit poll results of UP assembly election last year. All of them showed that BJP is going to win, but a majority of the polls predicted that there will be a hung assembly. Nobody could gauge that BJP will win with a huge margin. Another bright example may be the 2004 parliamentary elections. Most of the exit polls predicted that NDA will win around 250 seats, but the actual result was nowhere near the predictions.

    The exit poll is a survey conducted in different constituencies by the agencies after the voters cast their vote. It's a sample survey and done on a small number of people. Different techniques are applied to gauge the mood of the voters and few people, on whom the survey is conducted, may not tell the truth every time. Though most of the time the exit poll results come close to the actual results, we should take it as a prediction only.


    "Life is easier when you enjoy what you do"

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