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  • Category: Elections

    Republic TV and C-Voter National survey indicates NDA falls short of majority in 2019 elections

    Republic TV and C-voters survey predict NDA may fall short of the majority in 2019 elections. It predicts NDA may get 264 seats and UPA 141 seats, others 91, BSP and SP combined 47. In its prediction, it gave BJp sweeps in recently Congress won Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and it wins more seats than Congress in Karnataka, 8 seats in West Bengal, Bihar 35 seats and UPA 5 seats, 5 seats in Tamilnadu, Odisha 12 seats but it got one seat in the last election. The prediction gave more seats to BJP in Rajasthan, M.P., Bihar, Karnataka, West Bengal where there is no stand for it. C VoterSurvey predicting NDA facing 25% anti-incumbency. Republic TV is a BJP MP funded TV. In my opinion, NDA may lose more seats than what the survey is predicting. What is your opinion?
  • #660450
    It's a complicated matter. Surveys are carried out on various aspects and it's only an indication. Every time it may not come true. There are many trends shown through different media and this is going to be a regular affair until the elections are complete.

    This trend can always vary depending on the time and after the completion of elections in all the phases, the exit poll may show different indications. I do not know whether any MP funded channel affects the result of surveys or not, but as of now, it seems that no single political party is going to get an absolute majority.

    Sankalan

    "Life is easier when you enjoy what you do"

  • #660452
    Surveys are based on a small sample as compared to our population so their results are to be taken with a pinch of salt. Still they show the general trend.

    This time the elections are going to have a mixed trend as the expectations of the new generations are not fully met by the present regime. It is mainly the job opportunities and prospects for younger generations in the country.

    Meanwhile the opposition has openly started the lower level politics in all the issues and matters which is going to affect the coming elections significantly.

    The local politics prevalent in the states is going to harm BJP in one or more ways. The only hope for BJP is the recent patriotic and national proud wave which is going through the country in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks and their counter measures by this regime.

    Knowledge is power.

  • #660453
    It is too early to comment on this and some things in this matter will emerge only after the exit polls.

    The anti incumbency factor is always there for the party in power and that is going to happen this time also.

    So there are factors in favour as well as against the present regime. So only time will tell the results.

    Thoughts exchanged is knowledge gained.

  • #660457
    The survey is based on a representative sample. In a diverse country like India, choosing a representative sample is not so easy. So far as the survey is concerned, there is nothing to say. The dates of the election have been just announced. The election will be held in seven phases over one and a half month. There will be many more incidents before the election which will influence the minds of voters.

    So, no comment from my side on the findings of the survey.

    Come on, have a fight. Don't shoot and scoot.

  • #660462
    It is too early to predict the winner. Survey and exit polls are not accurate in countries like India with a vast population living in urban and rural areas. Many Indians may not be aware of what is going on in our country. Demonetisation, GST, Pulwama attack, air strike at Balakot etc may not be the things to think and vote. Since election dates have been announced, we can see too many interesting dramas of the political leaders.

    Let us wait and watch peacefully to see our next government.

    No life without Sun

  • #660463
    By the way, I want to humbly submit that the name of the Television Channel is Republic TV, not Republican TV as mentioned in the heading of the thread.
    Come on, have a fight. Don't shoot and scoot.

  • #660476
    I think still there is enough time to get the things consolidated. After assembly elections in some of the states, the central government has taken some steps where the farmers of the country got some benefits. So there may be a positive gain here for the ruling NDA.
    After the military action on terrorist camps, there is a big swing in the thought process of the voters and many people are favouring the NDA government as the present PM is able to take bold decisions and successful in getting good support from many of the other countries.
    There is an understanding between AIADMK and BJP in Tamilnadu because of it they may get some MPs there also.
    However, the accuracy of the survey depends on the size of the sample and the method of sampling. Unless otherwise, we know the method they followed we can't give any credibility to such surveys.
    As on date, we can't predict any outcome as there are many days during which the mindset of the voters may change.

    drrao
    always confident

  • #660478

    Republic TV is probably one among the very few TV channels favouring the BJP. So it is natural that they give out something that will be more favourable to BJP/NDA.

    However when they tell that the survey results are showing short of majority, then we have to believe. It is definitely a warning signal and indicator of trends to the BJP. In one way it can serve the party well if they take cue from this survey result and work hard and properly to campaign with the voters.

    What I had seen is that BJP/NDA ;lack motivating speakers. Though here and there there are second line and third line leaders and field level workers who show promise, they are not given opportunity to shine. That is going to affect as a handicap to the party.
    The party leadership should conduct leadership classes and speech classes for its workers and local leaders at various levels.

    The Republic TV survey is an alert to the BJP that it needs to work hard in 2019 and situation is not going to be an easy walkover.

  • #660485
    Dr.Srinivasarao, Here these results they told basing on the present changes of surgical strike, the various sops announced by Mr.Modi and the alliens fromed between BJP and AIDMK. They told when they surveyed in January, NDA got 233 seats only.


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