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  • Category: Kerala

    Will the Shabarimala issue help BJP to open its account in Kerala in the General Election 2019

    Shabarimala issue created flutter not only in Kerala but also in entire south India. There were support and opposition for the issue from different corners. Political parties took advantage of the issue and agitated for and against. Which party is likely to get advantage of the issue in the General Election 2019?
  • #660750
    The Sabarimala issue has antagonised a good section of devout Hindus against the Communists ruling Kerala. That sent shivers in the spine of the ruling side because the LDF in Kerala always got its good share of support from Hindus. That seemed shaky and not dependable in the aftermath of Sabarimala issue. Large section women and devout people across all religions felt the action by the ruling LDF as overreaction and signalling attack on religious belief,faith and practice.
    Surveys done at that time indicated that as BJP is not a force to reckon with in Kerala, it is Congress that is going to benefit from Sabarimala issue.
    However, the Congress could not cash on the situation because of its diabolical stand.
    Many people who had supported Congress also felt that they are getting cheated by the National party by its weak and hypothetical stand.Never even once the national party nor the other legislators called for a legislative assembly session to discuss a matter which was affecting a large section of the population. All this made people to see Congress with suspicion. Not just Hindus, but even Christians and Muslims who believe in God and religion also felt that signals are not good.

    Definitely BJP gained a lot during the Sabarimala issue agitation time.
    However even the BJP also could not encash the full benefit of the situation due its infighting and lack of cohesion and its seemingly abrupt suspension of agitation, leaving the ardent supporters wondering.

    The ruling LDF very clearly knows that BJP can get a good benefit in votes in this election even though that may not translate into many winning seats. That is why the election commission of Kerala has to come with a direction that Sabarimala issue should not be discussed in the election. I don't know whether that is valid morally, legally and even by natural justice. Only time can tell that.

    So now as the emotions have died down, and the direction and action threat given, not to discuss about Sabarimala, there can be only an undercurrent of Sabarimala issue effect, if only the BJP and Congress do effective campaigning.
    But the LDF is ahead in its candidate s;section and campaign. The BJP and Congress have not yet started.
    So unless they catch up fast and compensate for the lost time and gap, I do not see much gains coming to Congress in this election. Yes, this election will show BJP votes growing much.They can win at least one seat if they work hard in unison as a cohesive force. If there can be some subtle understanding between Congress and BJP, that will benefit both. In that scenario BJP may win two or three seats.

  • #660777
    I don't think that the Sabarimala issue will have any large positive or negative effect on BJPs performance in the coming elections of Parliament. Kerala is a strong communist state and the parties who have a poll alliance with communists will perform well than the parties who are against the communists. BJP also not dealt with the Sabarimala issue also in a required way. So the Hindus also there are not very happy. So how many of them will vote for BJP is a big question mark there. So I don't foresee any advantage to BJP. Maximum they may win 1 or 2 MP seats maximum. This is my expectation.
    always confident

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