You must Sign In to post a response.
  • Category: Miscellaneous

    Why there is a lot of cloud over GDP numbers?

    Last month 108 profound economists of the World and Social scientists blamed Indian statistical organisations are not maintaining GDP numbers properly and these organisations are working under political pressure. Due to this GDP numbers and data at World level get affected. NSSO and CSSO of Indian organisations have announced different GDP numbers is confusing. In the past itself in media it came, to show GDP growth more in Modi's regime, stastical organisations have changed the criteria of their calculation. Due to this the GDP number in UPA regime was lowered and NDA was increased. Today famous economist Raguram Rajan expressed there is doubt regarding these numbers and the government has to strictly verify the credentials of this data otherwise our Indian statistical organisations loose their credibility internationally. He also reiterated that in this five years, the job avenues declined 45 years low means, GDP number may not be like this. He also claimed that one of BJP MP himself told about this GDP number fact to him. It is the Chowkidaars what are they are projecting this false data to show their upper hand politically? Why the BJP weakening the democratic organisations to strengthen themselves politically?
  • #661320
    The answer to the doubt raised by the so-called 108 profound economists of the World should come from the Indian statistical organisations. Otherwise, we can't believe the statement from one side. We don't know and we have no proof to believe that statistical organisations have changed the criteria of their calculation. Is there any official announcement from these organisations regarding this change of criteria? I have not seen anywhere any announcement about this. Probably I might have missed the same.
    The political interference in the functioning of institutions is not called for. But unfortunately, this problem has been there in our country since independence. We all know that Old habits die hard. It may take a lot of time to come out of such habits. Hope our politicians will come out of these habits quickly and will never interfere in the functioning of such issues.

    drrao
    always confident

  • #661321
    Statistical data are prone to manipulation not directly but by changing the methodology, base year and things like that. It is a complex subject and even the experienced economist can err in understanding that.

    For example if last to last year the crime cases in the city were 45920 numbers and last year the number was 44010 then we can comfortably say that there is a decrease in the crime rate transforming to a percentage of 0.05% decrease. No one sees the total numbers. Everyone is happy with the word decrease.

    So statistical data affect the public the way they are presented not the way they actually are. This is happening all over the world and there are various agencies busy in these activities.

    I asked one shopkeeper who is having a big store how much GST he is paying. He told that he is paying on an average Rs 10000-12000 per month. I asked him what about the input GST deduction. He took some time but finally revealed that if we consider that input benefit then he is practically paying only Rs 4000-5000 per month. I could not understand what he means by saying 'practically' but the thing is data looks the way you show it.

    When you go to the bank they will tell you that the maturity value of your FD is such and such and interest is credited in a compound manner. I asked him why he is telling that it is compound because I have not seen any bank paying simple interest on long term cumulative FD. It is always compound. So deceptive language is used by these data presenters in all the organisations.

    Another interesting thing is inflation. Sometimes they will announce that though inflation was increasing on an average 5-6% for so many years but last year it has increased by 2% only. What does it mean? It simply means that prices are risen by 2% but they will say inflation is decreasing.

    So GDP is also a statistical data and you have to see the way it is presented.

    Knowledge is power.

  • #661324
    Members who have shown certain examples to say that expert economist views are wrong is incorrect. Here one of our statistical wings gave one GDP number and then others gave another number. To calculate GDP there will be a specific way of calculation and it is followed by many many years. The media itself brought out in a big way in the news, in Mr.Modi's government a different calculation method employed due to which the GDP value in Modi's regime enhanced than UPA government. Here RBI itself reported GDP calculations are confusing.
    More information from:-1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/raghuram-rajan-raises-doubts-about-india-growing-at-7-says-cloud-over-gdp-data-needs-to-be-cleared/articleshow/68581012.cms

    2. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-numbers-game/article25758571.ece

    3. https://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/numerous-gdp-revisions-calculation-methods-confusing-says-rbi-report/story-PC8aF6kgRf7J6YCBnid13K.html

    4. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-numerous-gdp-revisions-confusing-rbi-analysts-say/articleshow/64011091.cms


  • Sign In to post your comments