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  • Category: Kerala

    Is Wayanad really a safe seat for Rahul Gandhi? Let's discuss

    Mr. Rahul Gandhi is no longer sure of his victory from Amethi, mainly because of two reasons. The first reason is the stiff challenge thrown at him by Ms. Smriti Irani, and, secondly, due to his own (disastrous) performance as the MP of Amethi. So, he has planned to contest from Wayanad in Kerala, which is considered a Congress bastion in the state.

    But is the seat really very safe for Mr. Gandhi? Let us delve deeper. In 2009, Mr. MI Shanavas of Congress got 410703 votes. He defeated Advocate M. Rahmatullam of CPI, who got 257264 votes. BJP's Mr. C. Vasudevan Master got only 31687 votes.

    Now, let us see what happened in 2014. In 2014, Mr. Shanavas got 377035 votes. CPI's Mr. Sathyan Mokeri got 356165 votes, whereas BJP's Mr. PR Rasmilnath bagging 80752 votes.

    From the above data, it is clear that the vote for Congress has been decreasing rapidly, whereas the BJP vote is increasing by leaps and bounds. We also have to consider the fact that Mr. Gandhi is a total outsider and he is ignorant of local culture and language.

    Considering the above issues, is the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency very safe for Mr. Rahul Gandhi? Members, what do you think?
  • #661916
    The intelligent and educated Keralites, the so-called Mallus will not allow any foreigners from other states to make their booty and go. I am sure, Mr. Gandhi will bite the dust and return to Delhi.

    Chidambaram has a seat reserved for Mr. Gandhi in Sivaganga of TN. RG should have opted for that constituency for a sure victory. He missed it. What to do? His fate is not to win.

    No life without Sun

  • #661923
    The congress party must have considered all pros and cons of this second site for their leader.

    Still, it is always risky to go for such options and precautions but congress has no other way as losing Amethi will make congress to pin their hopes on Way and.

    Thoughts exchanged is knowledge gained.

  • #661931
    In Wayanad, Congress and Mr. Rahul Gandhi are heavily depending on the minority voters. But the left candidate will also go for minority voters. There is every chance of minority votes getting split in this constituency.
    'Nayak nahin; Khalnayak hoon main' (I am not the hero; I am the villain)

  • #661932
    The aggressive developmental work in Amethi by the ruling party has made it a worrisome situation for Congress as Congress is now feeling that they may lose control in their home constituency in the forthcoming elections.

    So they have to look for other greener pastures for their survival. As per the information received from the Congress workers in different areas, they might have chosen wayanad as the possible victory seat.

    Now coming to the core question about the distribution of votes. I strongly believe that in our country the majority of muslim population is Indian muslims and they will vote for the party which is working for nation and welfare of poor. So, these people are not going to vote blindly.

    Extending this analogy the voting pattern in wayanad will be a bit difficult to guess but Congress will not get the advantage they are perceiving.

    The votes will be distributed and whoever wins will win with a narrow margin. There are many other good places from where they could have gone to fight but probably they did not get idea of those places. It is lack of home work.

    Anyway, the individual perceptions can be different and time will only tell whether it was a good decision or not.

    Knowledge is power.

  • #661935
    Already Wayanad thread is running in this forum which is not much old. I suggest editors to look into this issue and hence members should not start same type of thread on same time.

    https://www.indiastudychannel.com/forum/163901-Amethi-may-not-work-but-Wayanad-would-work-Rahul-Gandhi-thinks.aspx

  • #661939
    Rahul Gandhi will win in Wayanad. He is 1000 times better than Modi. I prefer N. Chandrababu Naidu (or) Rahul as the PM.
    Cheers,
    M.K.Dan
    The Man With Most 'Ask Experts' Questions.

  • #661940
    Mr. Rahul and Mr. Dan: I humbly request you to go through the post very carefully. In this thread, I have tried to analyse the voting pattern of Wayanad voters during 2009 and 2014 elections and have established that the voting percentage for Congress has been steadily decreasing. On this basis, I have concluded that this seat is also risky for Mr. Rahul Gandhi.

    This is a searching analysis of the voting pattern of an important constituency, not about the pros or cons of any leader.

    'Nayak nahin; Khalnayak hoon main' (I am not the hero; I am the villain)

  • #661948
    The analysis given by the author shows there is a decrease in the vote bank of Congress and an increase in the vote bank of CPI and BJP. If the same trend continues this time also the chances for the CPI candidate are very high. The majority in 2009 is about 1.6 Lakhs and it has come down to 0.20 lakhs. But BJP may not become the winning party here but CPI may be the winning party.
    Again Rajiv Gandhi is a new person to the constituency and he never might have gone there. How people will receive him is a very big question. The Keralites are very well educated and the vote only after thinking about the consequences and hence it will be a very big problem for RG to win. I think the chances for RG and CPI are equal. However, we can't predict anything till the last moment.

    drrao
    always confident

  • #661953
    Dr. Rao: Kindly replace Rajiv in your response by Rahul. I am glad that you have clearly understood the main aspect of discussion in this thread (unlike some others).
    'Nayak nahin; Khalnayak hoon main' (I am not the hero; I am the villain)

  • #662110
    So, what is the prediction of the Members about Amethi and Wayanad? Can the 'Big Boss' win any of these two?
    'Nayak nahin; Khalnayak hoon main' (I am not the hero; I am the villain)


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