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This thread has won a special prize in the topic-based TOW contest for March '21.
  • Category: Miscellaneous

    Predicting future with past and present trends

    If we examine the various changes happening in this world in the value of material in the market or business or real estate or precious metals then we will find that there is a trend in them. Sometimes the trend may not be so straight forward and indicating increase or decrease in a particular direction but most of the times we can derive many references and help from these trends. Many decisions in the business environment are taken based on these trends only. They are very useful for predicting the future trends. So far so good but sometimes trends may not repeat in future and our predictions might fail also and this aspect we have to keep in mind while using trend analysis for futuristic plans. In general, trend analysis based on past and present data will help us in planning for our future endeavours and activities to optimise our efforts in a particular task or activity.

    let us understand the effectiveness as well as shortcomings of trends and their behaviour with time. The first example is share market. If we see the performance of the share market in a long time frame then we would find that there is a gradual increase in the share price index which tells us that there is a good return in long time investments in this area. But when we observe this in short time then the trend may not be repeated and there are time gaps when the market remains dull and stagnant for quite some time before rising or going down again. So something which is increasing with time in long time frame may not do so in short time. This is an important point to take in cognisance while investing for short term.

    Another example is gold which is a valuable metal and most of us buy it for jewellery purpose and sometimes for investment purpose also. Historically on a long time frame it has given a very good return but there was a time a few years back when it remained stagnant for a decade or so. The trend did not replicate during that time. People started to tell that gold has lost its sheen. But now it has again got a rising trend encouraging the investors to buy it.

    This is my entry for the month end topic based TOW contest on the topic 'Trend'.
  • #726811
    I agree that present trends may predict future trends and the author has written about the ongoing trends but he has mainly focussed on those fields which pertain to a specific section of society. i.e middle class or upper-middle class.
    Trends of share markets are known to people who are engaged in share business. They know how trends changes and when shares go up or come down. They have their criteria to speculate all these trends. As far as gold is concerned gold price is not an issue for rich people. When the lockdown was called off people saw a crowd of women in the gold market in our town. Those people who are involved gold business know very well how rates will fluctuate and how the market will respond. I know one person who has contact with several goldsmiths. When the price of gold goes down the purchases gold biscuits and when the price goes up he sells these biscuits. He is earning a good amount in this business.

    Be indian and buy Indian.

  • #726872
    Predictions can be made based on past and present trends. It is correct. The author explained this by taking the Gold and Share market as examples. But always these predictions may not go right. It all depends on the person's expertise in the field.
    In Andhra Pradesh, people say this year the mango crop may not be good. This prediction the make by the past trend. They say once in two years only the mango trees give a good yield. Hence they predict that this year mango crop will be less.

    drrao
    always confident

  • #726883
    Regarding the trend of share markets, it may move on higher trend provided the other industries are doing well and there are the demands of the end product and we may witness such a scenario after the normalisation of COVID period. The present time the Indian economy is in the shambled state. Once it picks it up buoyancy in the share market, the trend may be encouraging.
    In respect of gold ornament, the price is already high but there is a craze for this yellow metal and hence its demand might remain at least for the present level. If the economy brightens, there may be a further surge.

  • #726925
    Prediction based on past and present performance is a tool for advertisement purpose only. No body can predict the trends of share market or any such commodities rightly. It is really an unpredictable one and in a rare cases the result come true. The investment portfolio management always refer that one for attraction in investment. It is just an calculation base and can not be relied upon it. Any one want to make an investment should think others condition before make any decision. However as a trend ,it is natural and based on prudence practice.
    Believe in the existence of God the super power.

  • #726928
    Predicting the future with the past and the present happenings may not come true. For example Mamta Banerjee was considered to be one of the fire brand CM of the country and earned the name and fame by dethroning the strongest communist party and thus become unshakable CM of West Bengal. And this was the past and we have gone through her name and fame. But over the period of time her tiff with the center on every matter has earned the wrath of her own supporters because the wholesome support from the center is not forth coming and thus major projects cannot be gone through. Now that the voters have realized to get rid of her and her past and present fame may not get her the vote for future. This is the classic example of what the author has opined. Even the astrology would go wrong by taking past and the present in to consideration.
    K Mohan @ Moga
    'Idhuvum Kadandhu Pogum "
    Even this challenging situation would ease

  • #726952
    That's how we predict many things. While making a prediction, we think about the past and present trends and then decide what may happen next. The author has given two good examples in terms of equity and commodity markets and this is applicable in other aspects also. The teachers predict the performance of a student in the board exams depending upon the student's past and present academic records and suggest accordingly. When it's a continuous process, predictions are mostly done based on past and present trends though it's not a guarantee that those predictions will come true. While in a conversation between friends we will find there are a few who are predicting something and those predictions are based on many aspects including the past and present conditions.
    Sankalan

    "Life is easier when you enjoy what you do"

  • #726974
    Many organisations and business houses do many trend analysis for enhancing their business potential. That is necessary to understand the changes happening around and then take advantage out of the learnings from the earlier trends. Sometimes trend analysis is definitely helpful but not necessarily all the times. There are situations when a new trend emerges which has no link to past.
    Thoughts exchanged is knowledge gained.

  • #727152
    By giving some practical real life examples,the author conveys the message that trends are not conclusion themselves, but only pointers and leads to our response and action by considered and evaluated decisions only.


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