Being quite away from UP , I cannot have a first hand ground reality experience in this regard. Unfortunately whatever news I get to know from media are all biased one way or other. Hence I am not confident to give a right prediction. So I rely on my logic and analysis sifting through the inputs I get from the various media to present my view.
Unless there is some very stirring factor, Indian election results are a result of 'electoral mathematics". It is a complex combination of caste, religion and many other underground factors and mostly devoid of ration and deep thinking. If a combination of various parties and splinters is stitched up and if such a combination has a common candidate against BJP/NDA, then they are sure to win. Congress and most other non-BJP parties will try to come to some understanding to save themselves from debacle. They may try to exploit the Muslim votes in their favour and against BJP. This used to be the scenario till now.
But this time around,from what I can sense, a good percentage of Muslims have seen through the 'vote-bank political plays' and do not harbour such opposition to BJP as it was earlier. This is more among Muslim women. So there won't be a big favourable sentiment from women to Priyanka(a woman leader) as expected by Congress.
Though there can be some anti-incumbency towards Yogi government, it has not come to that level where people yearn for a change. Those who really want development have started experiencing development happening in UP faster and better than many other states. The Covid management, law and order situation and overall peaceful atmosphere gets him a favourable tilt.
But politics like certain place weather can take a sudden change and then situation can change. But as of now, unless the BJP/NDA side do not put same side goals, it will be advantage Yogi and Priyanka may not be able to dent this much.