IntroductionIn what may now be turned as a complete reversal of the " job security" wave of the sixties and seventies and up to the mid eighties, the Modi Government is one hundred percent pro-capitalist. Jobs at any cost is the norm. But the bulk of the jobs, which runs into hundreds of thousands of jobs, are essentially pure training jobs where the hapless individual is given some training and sent out after a period of three years. This is said to be the NEEM scheme. The amount paid is just around Rs12000 per month with no benefits like PF or even the mandatory ESI benefits. How long this atrocious practise will continue is unknown. But the trend by itself is very unhealthy.
Be that as it may, the following will emerge as the realities in the years to come. a) The B.Tech and MBA is the bare minimum for managerial jobs b) Executive MBA is a good mid term career switch option for professionals c) Finance and Markwting guys will also be engineer MBAs d) Pathetic exploitation of the unskilled will continue e) Migration of labor will continue forever f) there will be no dearth of trained managers at all and g) new jobs will emerge with self employment options.
The B.Tech and MBA is the bare minimum for managerial jobsMost of all managerial jobs in manufacturing are dominated by Engineer-MBAs or those with M.Tech qualifications and some managerial training sponsored by the employer. Where the process and technology is very good and standardized and the market is one hundred percent assured, the companies do not even bother whether the manager has an MBA qualification. To give one simple example. Brakes India Private Limited manufactures the Brake System for all Maruti cars, around the world. Maruti is the brand name but Suzuki is the actual owner. The partnership is one hundred percent complete.
This cash rich TVS group company has also started going to the best NIT colleges to recruit quality manpower. However, companies like Voltas, the entire Tata group, the Aditya Birla Group and so on are actively recruiting engineer MBAs from leading B schools. These trends will continue. Job rotation to give the managers rock solid experience has also started in many traditional organizations. This will vastly enable a large number of jobs being created in the ever growing organizations. However, the one hundred percent IT-enabled start up organizations will exploit the C and D grade B schools to recruit armies of trainable manpower that can be paid lower salaries. This is reportedly the strategy of some companies like Practo, a major player in the health care sector. It has tied up with thousands of doctors to access advanced IT for better service. However, the top management will be the cream from the IIT and IIM critical mass of professionals, some of whom are wisely entering the IIMs after three years of service. This gives them an edge when compared to those without experience, in terms of higher salaries.
Executive MBA is a good mid term career switch option for professionalsThe Executive MBA or sometimes PGDM as it is called, is the best option for engineers from the IIT s and the NITs who gather vital experience in consulting or engineering services or shop floor experience in fabulous organizations like the L&T for three or four years and then jump towards the prestigious ISB where they study the one year course. They are immediately absorbed by top notch organizations, as the learning curve is very less. The professionals choose jobs where they are empowered to take decisions and add value in terms of very high revenue targets. They are experts at giving more responsibilities to the younger guys from other standard colleges and keep empowering them day in and day out.
This results in faster promotions but the same fellow gets on to do much better jobs. The number of jobs increases but does not explode. When this author interviewed a 28 year Vice President in the ever growing start up space in Supply Chain Management, where his focus is to double the turnover every year by and throw intra-city Supply Chain systems with huge IT monitoring, he is actually doing an OLA in this business. Companies like Savani transport are sought to be weakened. The smaller unorganized lorry service guys are sought to be brought into the System. This intelligent move results in lower prices for the customer. Since these are huge organizations, the field work guys are always those with practical experience in the field. These fellows are poached from the established players and the business keeps growing as new contracts emerge. It is similar to the A to Z marriages. The apex IT start up has to deliver. It has a huge number of local players in each of the metro cities. Within a short span of time, B class cities like Coimbatore, Bhubaneswar, Vizag and so on will be added.
The crux of this story is that there are so many other similar stories where the VPs are often less than thirty years old and are always from the ISB or major IIM. The lower level managers may or may not be MBAs but those with practical experience. The hard core field experience.
Finance and Operations guys will also be Engineer MBADecades ago, when this author worked as a member of the research team at the IIM Ahmedabad, he met with a boy just 23 years old. From Chennai. He was CA number one in India, ICWA number one in India and ACS number two in India and then he joined the MBA. He did not attend a few classes in Financial Management, as he had already studied most of the portions.
Today, these kinds of guys are dominating the top class financial jobs. Some of them take a risk and enter the lucrative mutual funds as fund managers. These are hard core finance professionals. This tribe has now fresh competition. The Engineer MBAs who major in Finance have better exposure and similar background. This is a new trend which is bound to continue.
The hard core production people are also production people. They get to marry their engineering knowledge with the Management knowledge. This trend will continue but these people are also given strategic management responsibilities.
Pathetic exploitation of the unskilled will continueEvery single train coming from Howrah, Patna, Bhopal and Lucknow, these days carries a vast number of unskilled people who migrate to various parts of South India. Of late, this trend is increasing day after day. Hundreds of thousands have already migrated to even smaller towns. They are commonly very hardworking and know no other language except Hindi. However, over a period of four or five years, they pick up the spoken local language.
The sad part of this story is that these poor souls are given far lesser wages than the locals. This critical mass of labor are however given free rations procured through the local resources and some sort of accommodation that is often less than modest. However, the unskilled from such faraway destinations will continue to be badly exploited. What reactions the locals will have cannot be predicted now. These jobs are mostly unskilled jobs in restaurants or small scale establishments. However, they often stare at a very uncertain future. The exploitation continues. This migration will also continue as the development in the respective States is not that good at all.
There will be no dearth of trained managers at allSome years ago, the managerial famine was a big issue. Not any more. The huge explosion in the number of good engineering institutions such as the SRM and VIT deemed Universities has resulted in a massive explotion of managers at all levels. Many companies have tie ups with B schools for Executive education too. This trend will continue. In fact, the number of professionals from India migrating to countries like China, Thailand, Singapore and so on, are increasing day after day.
Hence, the jobs for professionals with good academic backgrounds will become global in nature. However, those from the unbranded engineering colleges will continue to suffer. They will go through the hard grind and settle in very ordinary engineering jobs in lesser known companies.
New jobs will emerge with self-employment options It is now called Event Management. Miss India is old hat. Today, in cities like Chennai, we have Miss Adayar, Miss Mylapore and so on, with good sponsors. Guess who runs all the way to the bank? The event managers. Most of them have the B.Sc Visual Communication course from the prestigious Loyola College, Chennai and other leading colleges. The owners are there to organize the internships for the students at any time.
The guys take up a job only for a short time. They then jump to entrepreneurship and make money. New courses and careers are emerging in furniture design, jewellery design and so on. Such courses will explode in the years to come.
ConclusionThe aforesaid discussion was restricted to certain trends in jobs. These trends are bound to continue. However, this article has not gone into statistics at all. That will be taken up later.
The main reason for unemployment is the demand and supply scenario. There are a large number of institutions churning out postgraduates and graduates in different disciplines and none of them is able to sustain themselves with self-employment.
Another thing is that the people do not have interest and liking for farming, horticulture or agriculture areas due to various reasons and everyone wants a white collar cosy job in the urban areas. This is hampering the growth in the rural sector where jobs can be created if a conducive atmosphere is available.
It is difficult to predict the fate of highly qualified people in the future in our country as a lot of uncertainty is looming over the job opportunities.
The only hope is if Govt goes for some major infrastructure project all across the country and absorb the local people in it from labourer to second level business managers.
The migration from villages to cities is increasing day to day. The main reason for this is the agricultural sector is not getting sufficient encouragement. To stop this migration government should consider recognising farming also as an industry and good support should be given to them for upgrading their technics. The cooperative forming should be developed. Then there may be a chance to stop this migration.
In villages we are not able to get people for any works and demand is so high there that 700 to 800 rupees are being charged by them for work of 8 hours.
The key to sorting out this unemployment is to stop migration and encouraging agriculture in villages.
Another point is the skill requirement. Even a mechanical engineer these days don't want to work in a core job in the mechanical industry. They want to go for an IT job and not interested in working on a shop floor.